Autonomous Bus Market Size (By Propulsion Type: Diesel, Electric, and Hybrid; By Level of Automation: Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3; By Application: Intracity, and Intercity) – Global Industry Analysis, Market Size, Opportunities and Forecast 2021 – 2028

The global autonomous bus market size accounted for US$ 920 Mn in 2020 and is expected to reach around US$ 4,232 Mn by 2028 with at a considerable CAGR of 21.4% during the forecast period of 2021 to 2028.

Autonomous vehicles signify a new, growing segment of the transportation industry. Autonomous vehicles such as buses are likely to pave the way for more sustainable urban transportation. The sensors and navigation controls on the autonomous buses are controlled by an artificial intelligence (AI) system. Self-driving buses are more likely to reduce the occurrence of vehicle-related injuries and accidents with artificial intelligence (AI), sensors, analytics, and other autonomous vehicles technologies are employed to maintain strict safety during operation.

Market Growth Drivers:

• Growing focus on road safety and traffic control
• Growth in connected infrastructure
• Growing number of accidents due to human errors

Market Restraints

• High manufacturing cost of the buses
• Data security and cybersecurity concerns

Market Opportunities:

• Advent of 5G technology for vehicle connectivity
• Development of smart cities

Report Coverage: 

Covid-19 Impact on the Global Autonomous Bus Industry

The COVID-19 outbreak has caused manufacturing to be halted, sales to plummet, and important companies in the global automotive industry to adapt or modify their strategies. Most countries imposed a complete lockdown for more than two months as a result of COVID-19 pandemic, which had an impact on car production. Vehicle sales were negatively impacted as manufacturing facilities around the world were shut down. However, after the re-opening of the lockdown, the automotive manufacturing facilities started operating gradually and are predicted to do well in the coming years. Thus, in the long run, this is unlikely to have a big impact because sales and investments have already resumed after a short pause.

Market Dynamics

A growing focus on road safety and traffic control is the primary factor driving the global autonomous bus market growth. The importance of transportation safety is the utmost concern of the world. According to studies, autonomous vehicles are more likely to help rather than weaken road safety as they undergo thorough testing and worldwide safety standards are set to guarantee safer navigation. The basic rationale is that self-driving cars can drastically minimize the danger of human mistakes, which is one of the common causes of traffic accidents. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), an estimated 1.3 million people are killed in road crashes each year, and as many as 50 million suffer non-fatal injuries. The same data states that human error was the single cause in 57% of all accidents. Thus, leading players are integrating advanced safety features in their autonomous buses to limit the tremendous number of accidents. For instance, in September 2021 – Volvo Buses announced that it is developing a new idea for autonomous driver assistance, which entails a system that supports the driver in instances requiring great precision and safety such as approaching and halting at a bus stop.

The increasing demand for connected infrastructure is expected to stimulate market growth in the coming future. The primary goal of the public transportation system is to increase connectivity between intracity and intercity travels. It is critical in densely populated cities where the majority of citizens rely on public transportation to travel. This is where autonomous shuttles will have the most impact. Additionally, the growing trend of self-driving vehicles is also increasing the demand for the autonomous bus industry.

However, the high manufacturing cost of autonomous buses might act as a restraint for the market. The amount of advanced technologies along with the costly sensors and components required in the autonomous bus increases the total cost of manufacturing. Besides, cybersecurity and data security concerns are also expected to restrict the market growth during the forecast period. Connected autonomous vehicles share a high volume of data and specific information by accessing digital infrastructure that includes public internet access. Vehicles can communicate and share data from onboard sensors and road infrastructure via a variety of technologies. This data sharing, which includes personal information, makes vehicles more vulnerable to cyber-attacks.

Furthermore, the advent of 5G technology for vehicle connectivity is likely to gain significant impetus for market growth during the forecast period 2021 – 2028. 5G technology is an important unit in the development of commercially available driverless public and private transportation. 5G technologies are expected to provide a robust, secure, and persistent communications infrastructure for connected cars and autonomous vehicles. Today's driverless buses are totally autonomous, but they still require the presence of a human operator at all times. However, once they have been programmed with their routes or destinations, they will not require any external assistance, which will drive the demand for fully autonomous buses in near future.

Market Segmentation

The global autonomous bus industry is segmented on the basis of propulsion type, level of automation, application, and geography.

Market By Propulsion Type

• Diesel
• Electric
• Hybrid

In 2020, the electric segment gathered a large amount of share in the propulsion type segment. Some of the factors driving the growth of the electric bus segment include increased global sales of electric vehicles, government support for electrification of public transportation, and increased private and public organization initiatives such as subsidies and policies to reduce pollution levels. The market for hybrid autonomous buses is expected to grow with a significant CAGR due to lower maintenance, reduced emission levels, and increased efficiency.

Market By Level of Automation

• Level 1
• Level 2
• Level 3

Level 1 segment gathered a significant amount of share in 2020. In level 1, the automated systems start to assume control of the car in specific scenarios, although they do not completely take over. Meanwhile, level 2 automation is expected to grow at a significant pace during the forecast period 2021 – 2028. In level 2 automation, the vehicle can control both speeds and steering separately in specific conditions to assist the driver. The growing deployment of level 2 automation buses across the world is anticipated to boost the demand of the segment.

Market By Application

• Intercity
• Intracity

Among applications, the intracity segment accumulated a substantial amount of share in 2020. The increasing number of in-city travelers is propelling the growth of the segment. The market is also witnessing rapid growth as intracity autonomous buses can handle tiny routes with ease, resulting in less traffic bottlenecks. However, the intercity segment is anticipated to attain a significant growth rate throughout the forecast period 2021 – 2028.

Autonomous Bus Market Regional Overview